Jinsong Huang
Bayesian Back Analysis for Long-term Soft Soil Settlement Prediction
Jinsong Huang
Professor at the Priority Research Centre for Geotechnical Science and Engineering
within the Discipline of Civil, Surveying and Environmental Engineering at the University of Newcastle
Abstract
Accurate prediction of the long-term settlement of embankments constructed on very soft ground is essential for
achieving cost-effective outcomes. Owing to spatial variability in ground conditions, settlements can rarely be
predicted with sufficient accuracy at the design stage. It is therefore desirable to update predictions using
monitoring data collected during construction. Simplified methods such as the Asaoka method (Asaoka, 1978) and the
hyperbolic method (Tan, 1993) are still widely used in engineering practice. However, these methods assume that
the soil comprises a single, uniform layer—an assumption that is seldom satisfied in reality. In addition, both
methods require settlement data beyond 60% consolidation to provide reliable predictions of long-term settlement.
This keynote presents a Bayesian back-analysis approach for predicting the long-term settlement of embankments
constructed on soft soils. The framework has been successfully applied to the Ballina embankment in New South
Wales, Australia, and to a bridge approach embankment in northern NSW, where post-construction settlements
exceeded serviceability limits. The framework is particularly valuable for embankment management, as it supports
timely, reliability-based decision-making during construction.
Biography
Jinsong Huang is a Professor at the Priority Research Centre for Geotechnical Science and Engineering within the
Discipline of Civil, Surveying and Environmental Engineering at the University of Newcastle. His research focuses
on risk assessment in geotechnical engineering and computational geomechanics. He has published more than 250
papers covering topics including slope stability and landslide risk assessment, modelling of spatial variability,
stress-integration techniques for elastoplastic constitutive models, contact dynamics of granular media, hydraulic
fracturing analysis, and predictive maintenance of railway infrastructure. Professor Huang has received several
prestigious awards, including the Regional Contribution Award from the International Association for Computer
Methods and Advances in Geomechanics (IACMAG) at its 2014 international conference in Kyoto, the GEOSNet Award
from the Geotechnical Safety Network in 2017, and recognition as Australia’s Field Leader in Environmental and
Geological Engineering by The Australian 2020 Research Magazine. He has been listed among Stanford University’s
“World’s Top 2% Scientists” for single-year impact since 2020 and for career-long impact since 2024. He currently
serves as Managing Editor of Georisk and as an editorial board member for the Canadian Geotechnical Journal and
Computers and Geotechnics.